Race Preview: 17:10 Pontefract
Racing fans are in for an excellent afternoon of racing, with a stellar selection of races across Europe; the one to watch is the Ballydole face-off, with September, and Happily battling it out in the Debutante Stakes in Ireland – a quick glance at where the money’s going, clearly shows punters are split on who to back, with both picks attracting significant weight.
However, we’re looking at the Betfred Shops Maiden Stakes, at 5:10 at Pontefract – there looks to be good value available, and while the short-prices (clear) favourite Glassy Waters may prove a tough one to beat, it’s worth noting, he’s taking a fairly significant loss, in trip, in today’s race – which, incidentally, will be his first start in just under three months.
Hovering between 5/4, and evens, the punters are clearly placing money on Glassy Waters, and highly-exciting appears to be the most-tipped horse at the race, although this Saeed bin Suroor-trained horse should expect anything but an easy 1m6y.
His main competition looks to be Ascot Week, who appears to have a very decent chance of a winning run, especially given he’s bringing some of his best form with him.
The markets appear to agree, and his ante-post price of 4/1 has shortened to 11-4, suggesting he’s being backed significantly. Although his last race with ridden with a touch of restraint, his previous form has been solid, and the horse has shown a growing sense of confidence, which cannot be ignored.
Expect Ascott Week to give Glassy Waters a serious run – and it’s very likely it could come down to a two-horse race. Plus, the combined experience of jockey Jason Hart, and trainer John Quinn is a benefit that can’t be ignored, and while calling him the Nap of the day is perhaps going a little far, there appears to be value that’s simply too good to ignore.
Another runner to potentially keep an eye on, is Caravela. Ridden by Charles Bishop, and trained by Mick Channon, Caravela could upset both Ascott Week, and Glassy Waters, and while her last appearance at Goodwood was disappointing, due to her being left a long-way behind as she come from the stalls, today she looks set to mount a challenge, and could be the outsider punters are looking for.
A rather generous price of 7/1 provides decent value, especially if there are no rule-4 deductions, although each-way value is hampered slightly, as 1/5 odds diminish the returns somewhat.
It doesn’t look to be much else in the way of competition, and the only other entry that shows any real value, is Mark Johnston’s Morning Chimes, who could be a smart bet at 10/1. While her form-record is next to non-existent, she comes from one of the most respectable yards in the country, and could prove to shake-up the market, if she can find her footing today.
The betting forecast is as follows:
2/1 Ascot Week, 3/1 Glassy Waters, 5/1 Caravela, 8/1 Morning Chimes, Never A Word, 14/1 Ludorum, True Colors, 16/1 Teomaria, 20/1 Mr Slicker, 40/1 Little Jo.